美前財長警告：關稅戰恐引爆經濟衰退

The user wants a detailed analysis and professional report based on the title “關稅戰｜美前財長耶倫︰美經濟衰退可能性顯著上升”.
The report needs to be over 1000 characters, written in traditional Chinese, follow specific structural and stylistic requirements, and incorporate information related to the topic.

Plan:

Analyze the Title: The title focuses on the “tariff war” (關稅戰), a statement by former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (美前財長耶倫), and her view that the probability of a US economic recession (美經濟衰退可能性) has “significantly increased” (顯著上升).

Identify Key Themes: Tariff war (likely US-China), US economy, recession risk, Janet Yellen’s perspective (though the title says “美前財長耶倫”, Yellen is the current Treasury Secretary, not former. This might be a slight inaccuracy in the user-provided title, but I will address the core themes regardless, assuming the intent is Yellen’s view on recession risk, potentially linked to trade tensions).

Structure the Report:

* Opening: Attract readers by framing the current economic climate and the weight of a former (or current) Treasury Secretary’s words.
* Body – Section 1: The Shadow of the Tariff War: Discuss the historical context and impact of tariff disputes, particularly the US-China trade war, on global and US economies.
* Body – Section 2: Yellen’s Alarm Bell: Analyze the significance of Yellen’s statement regarding increased recession probability. What factors contribute to this risk? (e.g., inflation, interest rate hikes, supply chain issues, global instability, potentially trade tensions). *Correction*: I need to clarify Yellen’s current role and context if possible, but will focus on the *implication* of a high-ranking economic official discussing recession risk.
* Body – Section 3: Unpacking the Risks: Detail the various economic indicators and headwinds contributing to the recession fears (inflation, monetary policy tightening, global demand, supply chain resilience, geopolitical risks). Connect these back to trade tensions if relevant.
* Body – Section 4: What Lies Ahead?: Discuss potential scenarios, policy responses, and the outlook for the US and global economy.
* Conclusion: Summarize the key points and offer a final thought on navigating the uncertain economic future.

Incorporate Information: Use the core concepts from the title (tariff war impact, Yellen’s view, recession risk). I will search for information related to Yellen’s recent comments on the US economy, recession risks, and potentially the link between trade/tariffs and these risks.

Writing Style: Use traditional Chinese, keep it engaging, avoid overly technical jargon, incorporate “creative” elements (perhaps metaphors related to economic weather or navigation), ensure smooth transitions between sections. Aim for over 1000 characters.

Formatting: Use Markdown for headers (小標題) and paragraphs.

Review: Check for length, language style, structure, accuracy (within the scope of the prompt’s themes), and adherence to all negative constraints (no opening/closing pleasantries, no source list, no English, no main title).

Refinement based on potential inaccuracy in title: The title says “美前財長耶倫”. Janet Yellen is the *current* Treasury Secretary. I will address her statement as coming from a high-ranking official currently involved in economic policy, while acknowledging the title’s phrasing. The core issue is the *statement itself* and its implications regarding recession risk and its connection (implied by the title) to trade/tariffs.

Search Queries:

美國財政部長葉倫經濟衰退風險
葉倫關稅戰美國經濟影響
美國經濟衰退可能性上升原因
美中貿易戰對美國經濟影響

Constraint Checklist & Confidence Score:

Prosperous Chinese writing: Yes

Title-based report: Yes

1000+ characters: Yes (will aim for this)

Language Style (In-depth yet simple, avoid jargon, creative, resonant): Yes

Remove main title: Yes

No English: Yes

Structure (Attractive opening, section titles, logical flow, strong conclusion): Yes

Incorporate source info/facts: Yes (will use search results)

Markdown format: Yes

Traditional Chinese: Yes

No sources/references: Yes

Direct answer, no pleasantries/intro/extro: Yes

Confidence Score: 5/5

Mental Sandbox:

If search results confirm Yellen recently spoke about increased recession risk, I will frame it around her current role and the weight of her words.
If search results link trade tensions (even if not explicitly “tariff war”) to economic headwinds, I will incorporate that.
If search results focus purely on inflation/interest rates as the recession driver, I will still discuss the “tariff war” element from the title as a *potential* background factor or historical context that adds complexity to the current economic picture, while emphasizing the more immediate drivers mentioned by Yellen or economists. The title links them, so the report must address the link or the implied connection, even if it’s just part of the broader uncertainty.

Key Learnings from Sandbox: Need to be careful with the “前財長” vs “現任財長” point. Will address Yellen’s view on recession risk primarily, noting her significant position, and weave in the trade/tariff element as suggested by the title’s focus. The core request is to analyze the *themes* in the title.

Strategizing complete. I will now proceed with generating the response based on the plan and search results.